Gambling With Sanity: NFL Picks Week One

I’m gonna try something a little different this time around. Every week, I’m gonna do a picks post, where I preview each NFL game and pick against the spread like a common degenerate (as opposed to the uncommon degenerate I am most of the time.) This should be fun and will allow me to talk about other NFL shit other than the Lions because we all need a break from time to time and also I recognize that some of you don’t really give a shit about the Lions and just read this nonsense because you’re fucked up and need help. Anyway, let’s just get to the goddamn games. Quick note, though: I won’t do the Lions game because that would spoil my preview post on Friday. Oh, second quick note: I’m using the consensus lines from VegasInsider.com, which takes all the lines of the all shitholes in Las Vegas that exist to corrupt and fleece the desperate and averages them all out into one shiny number we can all work with. NOW, let’s just get to the goddamn games.

Atlanta (+1) at Philadelphia

Obviously, the Eagles should probably be the pick here, but Carson Wentz is still doubtful and that leaves Super Bowl hero Nick Foles. The only problem is that Nick Foles is a career journeyman who happened to play the worst Super Bowl defense I’ve ever seen (fuck you, Matt Patricia) and chances are he’s gonna go back to being a shitter, right? That probably explains why the line moved from +4 to +1 in recent days.

Also, there is this: as I mentioned before, the Eagles represent Philadelphia and eventually Philadelphia always reverts back to its natural fuckup state. Plus, Matt Ryan and the Falcons are no joke (28-3 jokes aside, I guess) and in the battle of birds, one would think the NFL’s WWE fixers would favor the mighty eagle over the falcon and make people who are pissed off at kneeling happy and patriotic again, but the falcon is also a Star Wars icon (Millennium Falcon) and after the bombing of Solo, the Star Wars folks and Disney will be pressing for a little good press for their brand. Therefore, I have no choice but to conclude that the Falcons will win this one and somewhere an Eagles fan will beat his wife.

Pick: Atlanta

Pittsburgh (-4) at Cleveland

This is another line that’s tightened up, largely because there is doubt about whether or not Le’Veon Bell will play for the Steelers. But here’s the thing, and I forgot about this during my season preview: the Browns are still coached by Hue Jackson, and that is a sad thing for everyone. As long as he is the coach for this wretched franchise, they aren’t winning shit. I’m sorry, Dan. This is just the way the world works.

Pick: Pittsburgh

San Francisco (+6.5) at Minnesota

It’s really hard for me to bet on Kirk Cousins in any circumstance, and there is a lot of positive noise around Jimmy Garoppolo, who the NFL is already giving their next big face push, but it’s even harder for me to bet on a Jed York owned team. Plus, the NFL’s history is littered with various Garoppolos (Garoppolii?) who win a bunch of meaningless shit at the end of the season when no one really cares and the pressure is off. So . . . yeah, I’m kinda torn on this one. In the end, I suppose the NFL will want to protect Garoppolo in defeat while still giving the Vikings the big push. Pick the Vikings straight-up, but I think the 49ers cover.

Pick: San Francisco

Cincinnati (+3) at Indianapolis

Andrew Luck is supposedly healthy again and Marvin Lewis still coaches the Bengals, so . . . yeah, this one should be pretty easy. Then again, it’s NFL Week 1 and no one really know who’s good or who’s shit yet, so this is all dumb and meaningless. Wait, I mean, this is all very important and you should keep reading. Yeah. Anyway, the NFL probably wants Luck to get the comeback push and who gives a shit about the Bengals? I certainly don’t and neither do you. Don’t lie to me, but more importantly don’t lie to yourself.

Pick: Indianapolis

Buffalo (+7.5) at Baltimore

This is a line that has swung huge towards Baltimore, which makes some sense given that the Bills offensive situation is probably pretty dire this year, but it still seems too high. I mean, yeah, the Bills are going to be a dumpster fire this year, I think, but the Ravens aren’t exactly lighting shit up either. I wanted to pick the Ravens to honor my boy, Raven Mack, who’s had kind of a tough year, but he knows better than anyone that life is unfair, so fuck it, I guess.

Pick: Buffalo

Jacksonville (-3) at New York Giants

This line is kinda interesting because it shows two things I think: the Giants, due to the whole New York thing, getting more respect than they deserve, and Jacksonville, due to the whole Jacksonville of it all, getting less respect than they’ve probably earned. The problem is that I have no idea how to size up Jacksonville. Were they just a one-year wonder? Or is this the beginning of something for them? Wait, who’s the Giants quarterback? Eli Manning still??? Well, fuck.

Pick: Jacksonville

Tampa Bay (+9.5) at New Orleans

Jameis Winston is out for Tampa Bay, probably off stealing crab legs or raping someone, so this should be pretty easy. Drew Brees is a million years old and is a despicable piece of shit who believes in torture (lol the NFL, what a fucking league) but as we saw in the NFC South preview, The Great Willie Young and his boy Heinie give New Orleans spiritual energy that the Bucs just can’t match in their corny ass pirate ship of a stadium, and just like those hos beat up on Jameis Winston and his boys in the Battle of New Orleans, the Saints are gonna whip up on them here.

Pick: New Orleans

Houston (+6.5) at New England

It sorta feels like things are gonna start to unravel on the Patriots pretty soon, right? I mean, everyone has started fighting, Bill Belichick can’t even get an erection without strangling multiple hobos in one night, and Tom Brady is the only dude left holding this whole thing together and there will come a point where his old ass isn’t enough. Plus, it’s the first game of the season, it doesn’t really matter yet, and the Patriots have a history of starting off slow and laying turds in the opening week. Nobody cares about the Texans, but the NFL will want to push a returning JJ Watt and maybe give them a hurricane/flood redemption story, plus they wear red, white and blue, which negates the Patriots secret Illuminati color scheme advantage. Bill Belichick killed John F. Kennedy!!!

Pick: Houston

Tennessee (-1.5) at Miami

Man, who gives a fuck about this game?

Pick: I Don’t Care

Kansas City (+3.5) at L.A. Chargers

In my AFC West preview, I picked the Chargers to win, but I also kept calling them the San Diego Chargers, which just proves how wretched their spiritual energy truly is. On the other hand, the Chiefs are starting a rookie (well, for all practical purposes) at quarterback. I suppose I should hold to my original prediction, but the Chargers are sort of like the Browns or the Lions: in the end, they are who they are, and it overwhelms them again and again. I should have put more weight into that in my season preview, but I suppose I can start to make that right here. Unless I fuck this up. Which is possible. Because I’m a fuckup. If you didn’t know that already, you haven’t been paying attention.

Pick: Kansas City

Seattle (+3) at Denver

A good rule of thumb is when in doubt take the quarterback, which in this case favors Seattle. I mean, come on. Russell Wilson is a top tier NFL quarterback, while Case Keenum is a lot like Nick Foles: a career journeyman who happened to hit it big at the right time. But there’s a reason the Vikings were willing to let Keenum go. They know who he is at heart, and soon the Broncos will know too. On the other hand, the Seahawks have basically unraveled and I figure we’re about a year away from Pete Carroll: Ohio State head coach. Earl Thomas hasn’t even bothered to show up for work, half the team is gone and eventually Russell Wilson is gonna have one of those injury-plagued lost seasons. So . . . I don’t fucking know. What kind of idiot comes to me for gambling advice anyway? If you listen to me, you’ll probably end up sucking dick in an alley for drug money and living in a cardboard box.

Pick: Seattle?

Dallas (+3) at Carolina

You never really know what you’re gonna get with Carolina and Cam Newton. They could go 15-1 or they could go 7-9. This is true every season. On the other hand, fuck the Cowboys and their fake-ass America’s Team bullshit. But here’s the thing: Jerry Jones is basically the NFL’s Vince McMahon and one of these years he’s gonna just straight up rig this shit. And since we live in, an, uh, bold age where dudes like that can pretty much do whatever they want and say “fuck it and fuck you” even if they get caught, and get away with it all while everyone just shrugs and complains on twitter dot com, there’s a very real chance his theme music hits and he does a corny Big Boy walk to midfield and makes Cam Newton join the Kiss My Ass Club before making him stand for the anthem. These are dark times, my friends, strange and terrible, and in the Year of Our Lord 2018, the bad guys win.

Pick: Dallas

Washington (+1) at Arizona

Both of these teams are gonna be pretty bad. Washington already had prize rookie Darius Guice’s knee blow up like it was the victim of an Indian curse for refusing to get rid of the Redskins name. Arizona is a soulless wasteland, an entire state that was cursed by Apaches to an eternity of racist white faces hiding inside their adobe homes afraid of the sun, the sand and Martin Luther King, Jr. What does any of this have to do with football? What does anything have to do with anything? Cochise is dead and nothing really matters. John McCain is dead too, his brain having eaten itself to keep from having to live with shuttling between two savage spiritual wastelands like Washington D.C. and Arizona, but the world we live in mourns his death, excessively so, even while his ghost jacks off to babies dying in Yemen. And the same world we live in shrugs its shoulders at the savage Cochise. Fuck it all.

Pick: Washington

Chicago (+7.5) at Green Bay

Khalil Mack isn’t gonna save the Bears, not now or not for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is healthy again and ready to do Aaron Rodgers things, all of which adds up to a Real Bad Time for the Bears. On the other hand, that is a pretty big point spread and Rodgers might be entering the Tom Brady “fuck it, save my strength for late in the season” territory. Still, sometimes you just have to go with the obvious and the obvious is that Aaron Rodgers will humble and humiliate the Bears. Fuck both of these teams. What does that have to do with anything? I wanted to say it, that’s all.

Pick: Green Bay

L.A. Rams (-4) at Oakland

Jon Gruden waving goodbye to Khalil Mack was basically him waving goodbye to Oakland, middle fingers extended. It was a signal that he was already building for the future and Las Vegas, but really, I think it’s more of a symbol that Gruden’s trying to pull the long con. It doesn’t matter if the Raiders are trash so long as he can convince Mark Davis that he’s building a monster in the future. Keep stocking those draft picks, boy. Gruden is gonna ride this deal for as long as he can and rob that idiot blind. It’s actually kind of admirable in a fucked up way, and maybe nothing is more fitting for Las Vegas than that. This is going to be a wasteland of a season for the Raiders and this is just the start. Oakland will turn on them, making “home field” more toxic than the road. I mean, come on, a gang of brutes, bikers and postal workers aren’t exactly known for being noble and gracefully letting go. I wouldn’t be surprised if they catch Mark Davis in the parking lot and stomp his goofy ass. Come on, bros, you’re Oakland. You owe it to yourselves to make this happen. More importantly, you owe it to me.

Pick: Rams