Detroit Lions 2018 Season Preview, Part The End

We’ve come to the point in this infernal preview in which I am supposed to make some conclusions, maybe tell you that everything will be alright and send you into the season rabid and baying for the blood of your enemies. Let’s face it, you already know there’s a but coming (lol butt cumming)

Butttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt . . . you feel it too, right? I think we were all worried – hopeful, but worried – about what this team would look like in Year 1 of the Matt Patricia era, and this lifeless preseason, when it looked like the entire team was on a walkabout of the soul, getting ruined by backups and trash, has made everyone terrified of what’s to come.

This does not look like a good NFL team. It doesn’t even look like a functional NFL team. I already told you that I thought the defense would be trash, but shit, I did not expect it to appear this bad. The defensive line may as well not even be there, and the linebackers look like they’d struggle in a YMCA flag football league. This is a bad, bad defense, and given that is Matt Patricia’s supposed area of expertise, I feel like the howling scream at the beginning of a Pink Floyd song. Breathe . . . breathe in the air, because once the season starts we’re all gonna be suffocated by cruel Failure Demons.

The caveat, of course, is that the preseason is meaningless and forgettable, but only to a point, man. There are certain things which are just immutable. The final score, the actual result, of preseason games is meaningless. Seeing our dudes get wrecked like tissues on the set of a gangbang is real. You can’t hide that shit or explain it away.

We’re starving. I mean . . . come on. There is no way to say that without it being an understatement. We’re like North Korean peasants showing up at the border looking like zombies, begging for nourishment. But instead of being fed, we’re gonna be told to be patient, to wait until next year’s crops are grown. But by then, we’ll probably be dead.

We don’t have time to wait for whatever grand plan Bob Quinn and Patricia have cooked up. We need the Lions to win now. The sad reality, though, is that this is true every other year too, isn’t it? But at least most years we’re able to delude ourselves that there’s hope. Whatever actually happens on the field once the season starts, when fate usually conspires with failure demons and the NFL itself to fuck us in ways too innumerable to count, there’s usually at least talent available, a vague idea that the Lions could win. This season, defensively at least, that doesn’t even seem true.

There are things that I wish I could tell you, signs that I wish I could see, but Bubba, they ain’t there. This has the look of a team about to get steamrolled. But perhaps more importantly, it has that feel, doesn’t it? There is a spiritual rot hanging over the whole thing, a perpetual stink that has grown with each preseason snap, with each sad day that passes. Robert Ayers showed up and then left like Grandpa Simpson visiting the whorehouse and everyone laughed because of course he did. Things are already grim, gallows humor prevails, and the fucking season hasn’t even started yet! More importantly, the Matt Patricia era hasn’t even started yet.

And that’s what most terrifying here, I think. The sort of spiritual rot I’m talking about usually shows up after a few years, when it’s obvious things aren’t working and everyone is just waiting for a change. Well, it’s already here and they haven’t even played a game. I mean, what the fuck?

There are things we’re used to dealing with as Lions fans, oh so many things, but I don’t think any of us are used to that. I mean, this is a whole new animal, rabid and deranged, chewing on our souls. At least let us hope for a few weeks. Christ!

I’ve already entered the recriminations phase and nothing has actually happened yet. This is bad. Of course, there is always the chance that I end up looking like an idiot once the lights come on, but for right now, the energy is too ugly to ignore.

But then, of course, there’s Matthew Stafford. And there is a plan, a plan which I have tried to find and thread throughout this preview, but each time I’ve talked about it, the more I’ve found myself working harder and harder for it to make any sense. In the end, I suppose, I decided that it’s a coherent plan, but it’s utterly insane.

The Lions want to be the Patriots. That much is obvious, I think. They’re trying to model every aspect of the organization on the Patriot Way. The only problem with that is that they aren’t trying to build the Patriots the way the Patriots themselves were built, on a strong defense and a reliable quarterback who stunningly turned out to be the greatest quarterback in NFL history, which itself was kind of dumb luck rather than any sort of organizational genius, but instead on the Patriots today, a stripped bare team with a shitty defense being held together by the greatest player of all time. That is fucking insane.

The Lions are trying to be the Patriots, but they’re trying to be the Patriots of 2017, not the Patriots of 2002, and that’s where things are getting fucked up. The hope, the only hope really, is that Stafford somehow turns into the greatest player who ever lived and wins this fucking thing himself. Well, I mean, it’s a strategy, but so is setting yourself on fire and running screaming into a pile of cops after they surround your house.

It’s a hard thing, to break before the assault even comes, but it’s also a hard thing to live with 60 years of failure, a multi-generational rot which has left us all broken in ways that defy description. Nobody likes what I’m writing. I don’t like what I’m writing, but what the fuck else am I supposed to say here? The Lions look like a team that’s flatlined before they even lived. That baby is dead in the womb and all that’s left is for the lady to shit it out or whatever.

Jesus. I’m sorry. That was rough even for me. But these are rough times, strange and terrible, and these things happen. I want to hope, I fucking need to hope, but hope in what? I don’t know. I just don’t fucking know.

I suppose I could break down the schedule, start looking for winnable games and whatnot, but that is always pointless and meaningless. No one ever gets that right. You don’t know which games are winnable until you start playing them. Bad teams are suddenly good, good teams are suddenly ruined, new heroes are born, old heroes have their legs blown off.

I guess that’s where I have to try to find hope, in the idea that as much as I think I know, I really don’t. None of us do. Weird shit happens in the NFL, and, well, nothing would be weirder than the Detroit Lions suddenly shucking off 60 years of pain, especially this year, which somehow feels like both a rebuilding year and The End. That is a wretched situation.

Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford. I have to keep repeating that and reminding myself that a top tier quarterback is a powerful thing, no matter what other bullshit is going on. He’s still here, and he has weapons. He does. By himself, he should be able to drag this team to at least mediocrity and then who knows what can happen? What weird breaks and crazy NFL nonsense can go down? We’re so used to it all breaking against us, but what if it somehow breaks the other way this time? I mean . . .

Okay, so that is desperate talk. But really, what else do we have? This just feels so wretched right now, a listless wreck of a team whose starters have been pushed around and humiliated all preseason. It would be one thing if those starters were all dudes we expected to be good once the music starts, but I think we were all already holding our breath, with the defense especially. Their humiliation is really the only data point we have to work with.

Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford. The offense will be fine. I have to believe that because it’s sort of the inverse of the defensive situation I just talked about. I know the offense has good players. I have more data points there than just this preseason. I know Matthew Stafford will produce, that at the very least he will give the Lions a chance every week. I know this. I know this. I know this.

And yet, right now, it doesn’t feel like it’s enough. A lifetime of failure has made me an expert on the issue. I have a sixth sense for it. I can smell that shit in the air. And right now, it’s fucking asphyxiating me.

It’s not just the players, though, right? There is a palpable sense that Quinn and Patricia are charlatans. I don’t want to believe it, and until just this past week or so, I didn’t believe it. I think this is because I so badly wanted to believe in a plan, in something, anything, that I was able to convince myself that they knew what the fuck they were doing. I could see it. I could see the idea. But ideas aren’t always good ideas and to be honest I’m just sort of repeating myself now and am badly in need of an editor before I start talking about dudes running out of their house on fire again, but shit, I don’t know what else to say.

What else can I tell you? I suppose I could hold to the belief that Patricia’s defenses in New England always started out bad and then improved as the season went on, but is that even true? They didn’t look like they could even stop a Pee-Wee team in the Super Bowl. And as I have already said in the defensive preview, it’s my contention that the Patriots strongest defense was Tom Brady himself, that the defense wasn’t a complete tire fire only because he managed to keep the ball longer than any other team in the league, and when he did have to give it up, he did so giving the Patriots defense the best starting field position of any team in the league. Matt Patricia was a terrible defensive coordinator and he has bad ideas about what makes a good defense. Fuck him.

I am already getting carried away, already condemning dudes to the lake of fire before they’ve even coached a real game. That is insane, but this is the only conclusion I can come to. I really, really don’t want it to be true. I want to stress that because I don’t want you sitting there thinking I’m being negative just for its own sake. I am not that guy. I am a dude who is able to convince himself that Michigan will go 12-0 every single season. Shit, I remember looking at Michigan’s schedule going into 2009 and telling myself “hey, there’s no reason they can’t go undefeated.” This was when Rich Rodriguez was the coach and after they had just gone 3-9. I am an absurdly, unreasonably optimistic person. Nobody ever sees that, though, because the world we actually live in, is so unbearably wretched and because I’M A FUCKING LIONS FAN. Even the most optimistic man in the world will look like a cynical doomsayer if he has to write about this fucking team.

Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford. Matthew Stafford.

I feel compelled to call this a 4-12 team, but I can’t do that because of Matthew Stafford. He is the Hope, the one thing keeping me moving forward here. I just can’t see a team with him at quarterback being that bad. Well, I mean, the team probably will be that bad, but Stafford will mask a lot of it. I can’t see him losing to other bad teams, especially at home. The Lions won’t finish 4-12, but that should come with an asterisk because it’s really Matthew Stafford that won’t finish 4-12. The rest of the team could finish 1-15. Fuck.

But that’s sort of the point, I guess. The Lions have done this on purpose because it’s what Papa Belichick does. But take Brady away 10 years ago, and the Patriots were still a decent team. Take Brady away today and Belichick goes 1-15. Fuck Bill Belichick and fuck anyone crazy enough to build a team modeled on the 2017 Patriots instead of the 2002 or even 2008 Patriots.

But again, I’m repeating myself. I suppose I’m desperately looking for a way to convince myself that this will all be alright, that these ideas are Good Ideas, and so I find my brain trying to follow the same paths over and over and over again in the hope that somehow the conclusion will be different this time. But it never is. No matter how I try to break this down, I end up in the same place: hopeless panic.

The Lions look like a team that will be utter shit. The only hope is that Matthew Stafford somehow transcends it all, hell that he transcends himself, but is that really hope? That is insanity, and that is where I’m afraid we find ourselves. Again.

Final Prediction: 7-9, with all 7 wins thanks to Stafford

Detroit Lions Preview Part 2: The Defense

I know everyone is in HELL YEAH 16-0 BABY preseason idiot mode, but I’ll be right up front with you: I think the defense is gonna be a big ol’ pile of shit this season.

People don’t want to hear that shit, and I get it. I really do. Hope is the only thing keeping most of us going and anyone who comes along right now and shits all over that is an enormous asshole.

*bends over like goatse*

Hi.

The wild swings between Hope and Fear are especially magnified this season though thanks to a new coaching staff, specifically one brought in to fix the Lions wretched defense. This also means that it’s tough to really predict how things are gonna go with any real certainty because no one really knows what the defense is even gonna look like. Preseason games don’t really tell us that much because, well, because the preseason is dumb and meaningless. Never forget the Lions went 4-0 in the 2008 preseason before 0-16 took all of our idiot souls.

So how does anyone figure this out? More specifically, how did I, a rapscallion and a nincompoop, arrive at ABANDON HOPE ALL YE WHO ENTER so soon? Is it just baseless fear-mongering? Maybe a little. It’s almost impossible to be a Lions fan and not have those Failure Demons nipping at your heels like jackals, cackling your biggest fears to the dark places of your heart. But there’s more to it than that, I think. I try to be objective (calm down) and . . . I just don’t see it, bros and lady bros.

That’s because no matter how I look at it, I arrive at the same conclusion: Doom. Women rending their garments in the streets, beating their naked breasts and dashing their babies’ heads against the rocks while the men hoot like animals and sodomize each other through bitter tears.

Start with the personnel, which is basically the same personnel as last year’s defense which wasn’t nearly good enough, especially against the run. One thing I’ve mentioned multiple times throughout this preview odyssey, especially when talking about the Patriots, Packers and Seahawks, is that the NFL, for all its wealth, is a league of finite resources. This is because of the salary cap. It means that teams are constantly having to cut corners and having to make hard choices about which parts of the team to leave as relative weaknesses. The Patriots, Packers and Seahawks, who have the best quarterbacks in the league, have still won, mostly, even though they’ve been forced to essentially strip their teams of anything other than their quarterback.

So, I get it. NFL team have to constantly make choices. The Lions seem, to me anyway, to be choosing that Patriots/Packers/Seahawks strategy of loading everything on Stafford, of doing whatever they can to let him carry the team, and hope for the best everywhere else. You could see this in their offseason priorities, which basically consisted of them doing everything they could to fix the running game and offensive line. This was done for two reasons: to give Stafford more protection and resources, and to give the Lions offense more options so that they can keep drives going longer.

Keep Drives Going Longer.

That is a key phrase we’ll encounter again. But basically, the Lions have made the choice to try to control the game offensively while forcing the defense to just Hang On. I get it. I mean, it’s a strategy, one employed by the Patriots to great success over the years. All of this depends on Matthew Stafford being Tom Brady, however, which is scary as hell. But this isn’t the offensive preview, so I’ll try to move on and get this to finally make sense and come together for you, okay?

This is all a roundabout way of saying that the Lions needed a lot of help on defense, especially along the defensive line, and they didn’t do a goddamn thing to address it. Not really, anyway. They signed Sylvester Williams, but he’s basically just a marginal starter who isn’t gonna change the game or anything. That’s all they did to bolster the middle. And then there’s the Edge, not the wrestler or the U2 guitarist, but the dude responsible for getting to the quarterback. Everyone took it as a matter of certainty that the Lions would draft one, maybe even two, and early. Instead, they basically said fuck the edge and took no one. Well, okay then.

The Lions did draft Da’Shawn Hand in the fourth round, but he’s a dude who comes with a reputation as someone who does nothing really all that well, certainly nothing to inspire excitement in fans or fear in opponents, but his selection revealed the way the Lions plan to play on defense: a passive, bend-but-don’t-break style that is built on the idea of gap responsibility and not fucking up. The thought is that someone like Hand can handle being responsible for multiple gaps, and while he’ll never excite you, he shouldn’t horrify and disgust you either.

I mean . . . it’s a strategy. It’s nowhere near what I think the best or most effective defensive strategies are. I hate passivity on defense. I like the idea of responsibility, but the passivity allows more opportunities for fuckups. I mean, you’re far more likely to make a mistake during a 9-play drive than a 4 play one.

But it is a change, it’s just not the change we all wanted. Gone are the wild-haired attack the QB defenses, which were the legacy of Jim Schwartz and the defense he tried to build. In is the Patriots Way, which as we’ll see in a little bit, is kind of a fraud, at least defensively.

The linebackers aren’t exactly inspiring either. Jarrad Davis should be a player, but it’s hard to truly build something with other teams’ castoffs, which is all that Christian Jones and Devon Kennard basically are. I think the thought is that Kennard can be the big linebacker who holds the edge and keeps big plays from breaking out there, but you can dress a hobo up like a millionaire all you want, at heart he’s still a hobo and will cut you while you sleep just to steal a can of baked beans. I’m just saying, he’s no Dont’a Hightower no matter how badly the Lions want him to be.

I like Darius Slay. How could I not? He was an All Pro last season, but you have to wonder whether he can do it again. After all, consistency has not always been his strong suit, and if he starts giving up big plays instead of making them, then the Lions are straight fucked. That’s all there is to it. He’s the key for this entire defense. If he plays like he did last season, then maybe, just maybe, the Lions can keep teams out of the endzone. If not, then the Lions simply don’t have a coherent defensive identity and they’re dead. It’s that simple.

Glover Quin is still decent, but he’s not gonna make the difference like Slay, and everyone else back there are pretty much just guys. I’m serious. In terms of the defensive personnel, it’s pretty much just hope that Slay plays like Superman and that maybe Ezekiel Ansah can get to the quarterback enough times to throw opposing offenses out of rhythm. There’s really no other reason for hope.

But the defensive personnel is tough to really analyze without knowing how that personnel will be used by Matt Patricia and Uncle Paulie Pasqualoni. And here’s where I think the tale gets told.

Pasqualoni was last a defensive coordinator about a decade ago in Miami. That alone is enough to start making one eye the drain cleaner longingly. He lasted two seasons. The first was a surprise 11-5 season which saw Pasqualoni’s defense finish 9^th in scoring and 15^th in yardage. Not bad, right? The next season, Uncle Paulie’s last, they finished 25^th in scoring and 22^nd in yardage. Let’s have a moment of silence for Uncle Paulie’s career.

Why the big discrepancy? It’s simple: turnovers. His first season, the Dolphins finished 5^th in the league in turnovers forced. His second season, they finished 27^th. That huge swing alone probably accounts for a lot of the decline on defense. It also probably shows that the first season was something of a mirage. There’s a school of thought that turnovers are essentially random, and that relying on them is something only done by a great fool. I think that’s basically true, but I also think you can do things to force turnovers more frequently. Specifically, I think an aggressive defense that puts a ton of pressure on the quarterback can reliably force turnovers more than a team that just sits back on its heels. You see where I’m going with this, right? The Lions defensive philosophy isn’t exactly aligned with forcing turnovers. To me, that makes Uncle Paulie’s second shitty season more likely than the first.

But really, fuck Uncle Paulie. He’s a thousand years old and was basically brought in because Matt Patricia knows him, is comfortable with him, and because Uncle Paulie will take orders from the head of the family.

And that’s where the power really lies here, with Matt Patricia. You know, the guy last seen leading a defense to utter collapse and a loss in a Super Bowl despite Tom Brady throwing for over 500 yards. Yeah, that guy.

Oh Lord, why??? How long, Lord??? How long???

Sorry. I just needed a moment to wail and hurl recriminations at the almighty. That’s because I think that Matt Patricia’s reputation is entirely fraudulent. At least as a defensive coordinator.

The thing is, is that this seems kind of insane given that in Patricia’s six years as defensive coordinator for the Patriots, their defenses finished in the top 10 in scoring defense every season. So why the fuck am I complaining? Well, in three of those six seasons, they finished 25^th, 26^th and 29^th in yards allowed. That’s, uh, that’s not good. Especially that 29^th place finish, which was last season, which translated into Doom in the Super Bowl.

Then again, the whole point is to keep the other team out of the endzone. Who cares how many yards you give up as long as the other team doesn’t score? This is the very essence of the bend-but-don’t-break philosophy. But here’s why I think that Patricia – and the Patriots Way on defense – is kind of a fraud: Tom Brady.

It’s not just that Brady carries the team offensively, he also carries the team defensively. What do I mean by that? Remember that phrase I mentioned you should remember earlier? Keep Drives Going Longer.

Football is a team game, and in more ways than you probably realize. It isn’t just about who’s on the field together. It’s about how your different units complement one another to create a unified and coherent philosophy. It’s why you see so many quick-strike, spread offenses with such “shitty” defenses. It isn’t even that their defenses are shitty so much as they’re often left hanging out to dry by their offenses, who don’t give a shit how often the defense is on the field or whether they give up 10 points or 40 so long as the offense can score 50.

On the other hand, some “good” defenses aren’t actually very good at all. But they still work because the offense plays a style built to protect the defense. Long drives and field position are maximized in order to 1. Keep the defense off the field, and 2. Put them in a position where they can bend a bit when they are on the field.

This has long been the Patriots strategy under Belichick, and especially under Patricia. And it works – mostly – because of Brady. He engineers long drives – the Patriots led the league last season in time of possession, which kept the defense off the field – and because of this, when the defense is forced to come onto the field, they do so with the other team in shitty field position. When the Patriots do have to punt, they usually do so from an advantageous position, which is why the Patriots also were number one in the league in opponents starting field position.

It’s a coherent strategy, one that’s served the Patriots well. At least until it became just too goddamn much and fell apart in the Super Bowl. After all, for all those advantages won by Brady for the defense, that defense allowed 6.1 plays per drive, which was 30^th in the league, and let the other team keep the ball for 2:44 per drive, which was 22^nd. That explains the vast discrepancy between the Patriots rankings in scoring defense and yardage allowed. They weren’t actually doing much to prevent the other team from scoring. It was Tom Brady. He was the Patriots defensive MVP.

All of this is my way of pointing out that Matt Patricia really doesn’t have anything going for him as a master defensive strategist. He’s not gonna come up with a defense capable of stopping the other team cold. His best strategy, his only strategy, is to hope that Matthew Stafford can be the team’s offensive and defensive MVP.

But it’s more complicated than that, I think. Remember back to when I talked about the Lions making choices. Recall that I said the choice they made was to bolster the offensive line and the running game. Here’s where it gets interesting: those choices were made as much with the defense in mind as the offense. They were made precisely because they are the sorts of things a team needs in order to keep their damn offense on the field and the defense off of it. It’s a coherent strategy, at least.

It also means that they probably aren’t expecting Stafford to go Full Brady. That would be insane. The Patriots basically gutted their entire team other than Brady and still won because Brady could take the entire team, offense and defense, on his back. And it worked. At least until the Super Bowl, but that brings up an important point: with this strategy, there comes a point when even Tom fucking Brady isn’t enough. That’s an insane way to try to win.

But again, I think at least some part of Bob Quinn knows this, which is why he’s attempting not to modify the strategy, but to spread its responsibility around a bit. Not to the defense, but to the rest of the offense. A strong running game and a powerful offensive line are there to help Stafford, certainly, but they’re there to help him protect the defense as much as anything else by working long drives and setting up the defense with good field position.

So where does all of this leave the Lions defense this season? Like I said, I think it will be shit. But that might not even be relevant. The truth will likely be told by how effective the offense is at protecting the defense. That is the Patriots Way. Patricia’s value is similar to Pasqualoni’s: he’s there because he understands the overall concept, not because he’s gonna be a forceful agent of chaos and change. I said this before, a while back: this is Bob Quinn’s team. He understands the Patriots Way. He helped build it. He hired a coach who’s gonna do what he’s told and who’s gonna keep things coherent.

Still, this is a defense that will drive us all insane. It’s not gonna get in there and destroy other teams. It’s not gonna force a lot of three and outs. It’s gonna be frustrating and it’s gonna be maddening. There will be wailing and drain cleaner smoothies and drunks wanting to fight Matt Patricia and Uncle Paulie. The key is to understand that, insane or not, this is the Lions plan. They want to control the game offensively in order to make the defense largely irrelevant. Will it work? I mean, maybe. It’s worked for the Patriots, and Stafford is good enough I think to at least go ¾ Brady and let the hopefully fixed run game handle the other ¼. But that is a lot of Hope in a place where we have none, and it’s hard to forget the image of Patricia standing helpless on the sideline while his defense was destroyed by the Eagles in the Super Bowl.

But Hope is all we’ve really got, which is the usual song we’re left singing this time of year. I think I can see a coherent plan, even if it’s one I don’t necessarily like, and I guess maybe that’s enough for now. At least it’s not deranged anarchy. At least no one is up there mumbling about pad level or bible study or getting confused by the glare of the fucking sun. We know what that’s like, and it sucks. So, it’s Hope again, old friends. And if we can’t have Belief, I guess that will have to do. Again. And again. And again. And again . . .