More like Nostralameass amirite?I've decided to go ahead and breakdown the accuracy of my predictions of the Lions game against the Vikings and then we'll see where I'm at tomorrow. I still want to do a random thoughts post because there is a lot of shit I want to talk about that doesn't really deserve its own post and that means that The Adventures of Willie Young might get pushed aside this week. But, who knows? We'll see what I feel like doing.
Anyway, like I said yesterday before the emo floodgates opened and I began wailing like Morrissey after his cat died, the predictions this week were a mixed bag of stupidity. Let's just get to them before I end up cutting myself.
PREDICTION THE FIRST: The Lions will try to lean on Best but he will struggle running the ball against the Williams Wall, gaining only 50 yards on 16 carries. However, Best will catch 7 passes for 90 yards and a touchdown.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Well, this one just turned out to be a big mess thanks to the Failure Demon's possession of the turf like he was Freddy Krueger or something. Indeed, Jahvid Best was taken from us by the dreaded Turf Toe and hey, why not, you know? Next week, Ndamukong Suh will probably come down with Hemorrhoids or Kyle Vanden Bosch will contract Terminal Syphilis or Louis Delmas will suffer from Explosive Diarrhea (That's right, we keep it classy here.)
But before Best's toe was eaten, his game was playing out fairly closely to what I predicted. He had 7 carries for 26 yards and struggled to run the ball against the Williams Wall and the Vikings defense. He only caught 2 passes for 13 yards. Now let's look at Maurice Morris' numbers and tack them on to Best's so we can get a rough picture of what the position produced relative to the prediction.
Morris ran the ball 6 times for 5 yards, which . . . uh . . . Jesus. He also caught 5 passes for 36 yards. So, for the game, the position (and by the position, I mean the starter, which means Best and then the dude who replaced him, Morris. Hell, you know what it is I'm trying to say here, right?) produced 31 yards on 13 carries - yikes! - and 7 receptions for 49 yards.
So. I was sorta right and sorta wrong here. I know that's a copout but the circumstances of the game muddied the picture. I feel like I was right about Best and the Lions struggling to run the ball even though they wanted to. I mean, they obviously struggled and I think they set out to run the ball early on, but their inability to run the ball on first down forced them into obvious passing downs after that, thus depressing the total number of carries. The best run on the day, incidentally, came on an end around to Stefan Logan, who ran for 21 yards. The Lions couldn't run the ball for shit and that's that.
That was somewhat expected though. More disappointing was that the Lions got zero big plays from the running backs in any facet of the game. After they were taken out of the game as rushers, they needed to assert themselves as playmakers in the passing game. That's the beauty of Jahvid Best. Even if you stop him one way, he can just squirt out into the flat and take a pass to the house. But this didn't happen against the Vikings and even though Best and Morris caught a combined 7 passes, which falls right in line with what I predicted, they combined for only 49 yards, which is only a little more than half of what I predicted. Total, for the game, Best and Morris combined for 80 yards and 0 touchdowns, and . . . well, that's going to lead to a Lions loss just about every time.
PREDICTION THE SECOND: Shaun Hill will throw for 280 yards and complete 25 of 40 passes. Many of these will be to Best and to Brandon Pettigrew as the Lions once again effectively use the short passing game. However, Hill will also get the Lions wide receivers, particularly Calvin Johnson, involved in the game more.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Hill completed 29 of 43 passes for 237 yards to go along with 1 touchdown. And, oh yeah, those 2 killer interceptions in the 4th quarter.
I feel like I was pretty accurate with this prediction. The numbers are close, anyway, and the Lions did go to Best (or at least Morris) and Pettigrew (along with Tony Scheffler) in the short passing game as they attempted to move the ball through the air in place of the run. All told, 21 of Hill's 29 completions went to tight ends or running backs.
However, this also means that I was wrong about the second part of the prediction. Hill failed to get the Lions wide receivers more involved in the game, completing just 8 passes for 79 yards to them. That's no good. Sure, sure, it hurt a bit that Nate Burleson was out with an injury but Burleson had been largely absent offensively for the Lions even before his injury.
The troubling and undeniable fact is that so far this season the Lions have done an atrocious job of getting the ball to their wide receivers. This both keeps the Lions from being able to strike with big plays (Jahvid Best aside) and allows defenders to slip closer to the line of scrimmage in order to take the Lions other weapons (like Best) away.
The real question is why is this happening? Why can't the Lions get the ball to their receivers? Is it because the Lions coaches are simply afraid of the potential mistakes that come from throwing the ball down the field? Or is it because Shaun Hill simply can't throw the ball down the field?
Honestly, I think it's a combination of those factors. Even before Matthew Stafford's shoulder was turned into raw hamburger against the Bears he wasn't throwing the ball down the field. Like, at all. It was checkdown, checkdown, checkdown, and while, hey, it's great that you don't want to make a mistake or throw a killer interception, it also means that you're not going to move the ball, which the Lions desperately need to be able to do because their defense, well . . . again, I refer you to the Armageddon scene in Terminator 2.
Still, one half of football isn't enough to damn the coaches with, so what we're left with there is just an uneasy feeling. The reality is that the game plan - which I believe is inherently a bit too conservative - has become even more conservative with Shaun Hill under center. Hill's chief talents are in the Scrappy-Doo Grit King arena. He's that cliched dude who "just knows how to win." (Although, honestly, that's kinda crumbling a bit, you know? Now, he's just looking like every other talent deficient grit merchant the team has trotted out in the last billion years.) He's not going to throw bombs down the field with laser like accuracy.
So, you can kinda understand why the Lions aren't getting the ball to their wide receivers. Kinda. But not really. And I'm going to talk about that in this next prediction . . .
PREDICTION THE THIRD: Calvin Johnson will catch 7 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. He will catch a couple of jump balls, taking advantage of the size disparity between him and the Vikings cornerbacks. We will all breathe a sigh of relief and I will give Calvin back the name St. Calvin. If he struggles again, Lions fans will split apart in a horrible civil war surrounding his fate and there will be many tears shed and many dead bodies left behind when it is all over. Fucking Roy Williams. This is all his fault for filling us with The Fear.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: Calvin caught 6 passes for 56 yards and failed to score a touchdown. St. Calvin? Uh . . . not yet.
And here is where we pick up the discussion about getting the ball to the wide receivers. Against the Vikings, Calvin had a great matchup. The cornerbacks he was playing against were all much shorter than him, meaning that all the Lions needed to do was throw the ball up and let Calvin go up and get it. You don't need a big arm for that. You can leave balls short and Calvin will adjust to them, go up and grab them over the top of a helpless defender or two, or he'll draw a pass interference penalty. Either way, it's a devastating weapon that is pretty much indefensible. And yet, the Lions rarely try it.
Why? I don't know. It doesn't make any goddamn sense at all. In fact, it would seem like it would make even more sense to try this with Hill at quarterback than Stafford. Stafford can hit Calvin over the top. Hill just needs to throw it up and let Calvin go get it.
To be fair, there were a couple of times when the Lions recognized that Calvin had favorable coverage and made it a point to get him the ball. This is fine, except it ignores one basic reality: Calvin always has favorable coverage. It doesn't matter who is on him. He's 6'5", he can jump through the roof and he has colossally giant hands (And you know what they say about giant hands, don't you? That's right, it means that he can catch a lot of passes. What? You heard something else? You pervert. Please, this is a family blog. Well, the Manson Family anyway.)
Anyway, the point is that the Lions need to stop looking for opportunities to get Calvin the ball and realize that those opportunities are always there.
Of course, there is the sneaking suspicion that Calvin has been infected with Lions Disease, but even so, his freakish ability is enough so that he should still be able to routinely dominate no matter his mood. We have seen flashes of this late in games when the Lions become desperate enough to start throwing him the ball with regularity.
It is intensely frustrating to watch the Lions keep Calvin in their back pocket. It's like they are afraid to use him unless they absolutely have to. I have said it before and I'll say it again: I think that Jim Schwartz really, really wants to win by running the ball and playing solid defense and to him, relying on Calvin Johnson would be a betrayal of his own coaching ideals. It would mean that his way isn't working.
Of course, it is presumptuous as all hell to try to guess what it is that Schwartz is thinking. I don't know. It's just a suspicion. But it's one that I've had since almost the moment he walked in the door and game after game I feel like that suspicion is backed up by what takes place on the field. I do think he'll throw the ball. I mean the Matthew Stafford "Let's Give All Lions Fans A Boner" game against the Browns last year kind of proved that. But even in that game, the Lions had to throw because the defense had vacated the field in the face of the mighty Brady Quinn (I just cast a glance at my neckties, and wondered which one would make the best noose) and I still think that if Schwartz had his way, the Lions would grind out every game and then he could snuggle in the sauna with Bo Schembechler and Woody Hayes. Then again, that describes 85% of coaches, so who knows?
Now, I know we're not allowed to criticize Schwartz or the coaches yet and they are all geniuses and Hope, blah blah blah, but here's something that you can't ignore:
Through three games this season, Calvin Johnson has 14 catches for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns (Yeah, two. Not one. Two.) Extrapolated over an entire season, that works out to 74 catches for 805 yards and 10 touchdowns. Not horrible numbers, but they are nowhere near what a top flight wide receiver should have.
Now, I know it's dangerous and stupid to make those sorts of projections after only three games, and normally I wouldn't even bother, but here's the thing: last year, Calvin caught 67 passes for 984 yards and 5 touchdowns. Sure, he missed two games, but for most of the season, Calvin looked like he just wasn't on track and that has continued this season. Meanwhile, in 2008, aka The Year of Unnumbered Tears aka 0-16, Calvin caught 78 passes for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns. His average per catch that year? 17.1 yards. Last year that dropped to 14.7 yards. This year it's at 10.8 yards.
Now why is this happening? There is of course the distinct possibility that Calvin has contracted the dreaded Lions Disease, but the decline in Calvin's numbers and the increasing frequency of times that the average fan has watched the game and said "Yo, Calvin just don't look right," have both coincided with the tenure of Schwartz and Scott Linehan. Am I blaming them? No. But I'm nervous. And burying my head in the sand while Kevin Bacon screams ALL IS WELL (By the way, it's still kind of weird to me that Kevin Bacon was in Animal House. I don't know why. It just is. Maybe because he was damn near an extra.) isn't going to change anything. I can't make a wish upon a star and hope that it will just magically get better because it's supposed to. Calvin's been struggling for over a year now and yeah, I'm officially concerned.
PREDICTION THE FOURTH: Favre will throw for 275 yards and 2 touchdowns and we'll have to sit and listen to the announcers verbally blow him because, well, this is what happens to Lions fans. He'll also throw 3 interceptions and both Favre and the announcers will blame it all on his receivers, especially Hank Baskett, whose concentration will lapse during a pass to him when he is forced to picture his wife riding some asshole on camera. Baskett's spirit will be utterly broken when that asshole looks back and has the face of none other than Brett Favre! The asshole will then shrug and say "Favre?" and Baskett will fall down on the field in emotional torment while Louis Delmas picks off the pass and returns it for a touchdown.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: In the words of C-3PO, thank the maker! (As opposed to the other famous quote from C-3PO: "Come along now, R2, you just have to lie back and enjoy it. I know it hurts at first, but you'll soon loosen up. You'll see, R2."
"Bleep - bleep - BOOP!"
"Oh fine, R2, we'll see if Master Luke has any lubricants. I seem to recall seeing some next to his bed alongside some tissues. He keeps watching that playback of that Princess Leia hologram even though I'm sure it's been burned into his memory banks by now. I'm sure that won't be awkward as hell later. No, of course not. Hold still R2, I can't quite work it in. Oh yeeeeees, that's it, R2."
"Bleep - boop - bop - bleep" *mechanical whirring, followed by R2 exploding*
"R2! R2? Do you mind if I finish?"
And . . . scene.)
Okay, that was weird as hell and I really, really apologize. The truth is that I could have kept going for pages and pages with that. On the bright side, I think I set a record by having a parenthetical extend beyond paragraph breaks. Truly, I am erasing all boundaries here.
Ahem. Somehow, I managed to be both excessively nerdy and excessively perverse there and I wouldn't blame you if you were taking a shower right now and if you began weeping whenever you made toast. I'm sorry if I have ruined your toaster for you, but just remember, your toaster has needs too.
Jesus! I just can't stop. Okay, okay, okay - Favre. Anyway, the point that I was trying to make with the original ultra-nerdy "Thank the maker!" thing was that thankfully, Favre "only" threw for 201 yards and 1 touchdown, meaning that he failed to make history against us. At least this time. He also threw two interceptions and generally looked like old dog shit. The bad news is that our secondary is as useless as the sidewalk an old dog shits on and so it didn't matter. (By the way, I briefly contemplated writing a scene in which Han Solo steps in old dog shit to illustrate this point further. Just be glad I changed my mind. Although it would have contained a scene that would have forever made you look at Chewbacca differently.)
As for Hank Baskett, I can only assume he was beaten by his wife's pimp and then made to sleep in the doghouse again while a cameraman from E! and Hugh Hefner doubled teamed his wife in the baby's nursery.
PREDICTION THE FIFTH: Adrian Peterson will run the ball 24 times for 98 yards and a touchdown. He'll also be responsible for one crucial fumble. After the game, The Great Willie Young will skin him alive and hang his pelt on his wall as a trophy.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: *Guzzles a bottle of Clorox, waits for my Spirit Horse to show up*
PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: LIONS 28 VIKINGS 24
ACTUAL FINAL SCORE: Willie Young? What are you doing here? You're my spirit guide? Wait . . . does this mean that I'm destined to rewrite Dante's Divine Comedy with myself as Dante and you as Virgil? Oh, Willie.
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